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Red85
97743.3
456133.4
99714.3
Blue36
146627.1
325814.3
99723.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions109600501502008536

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+35Teleop
+37Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +32
14Coral scored#6
51Coral points21
0Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
0Processor points6
12Net points4
12Algae points10
63Total teleop31
Reef
5L4#1
4L3#3
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#8
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
12Foul points0
85Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
977
#4
43.31.4
43.842.4
Auto8.6
Teleop32.1
End2.5
red by 16.2
1466
#14
27.11.6
30.729.1
Auto7.6
Teleop17.3
End1.9
Second
33.41.4
36.935.5
Auto5.6
Teleop19.8
End7.6
red by 19.1
3258
#23
14.31.6
16.014.4
Auto2.4
Teleop10.9
End0.7
Third
9971
#10
4.32.4
8.76.3
Auto-1.5
Teleop6.7
End-0.4
red by 1.2
9972
#21
3.12.7
7.75.0
Auto0.2
Teleop3.6
End-0.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsMissed36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed