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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7879506070904258

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+18
Endgame+16
Fouls+16
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points3
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +15
4Coral scored#6
16Coral points23
2Processor algae#2
1Net algae#3
12Processor points12
4Net points12
16Algae points24
32Total teleop47
Reef
2L4#3
1L3#2
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#12
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
0Foul points0
42Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5804
#12
31.53.7
29.425.8
Auto3.0
Teleop26.0
End2.5
red by 1.9
29.52.1
29.327.2
Auto7.2
Teleop21.3
End1.1
Second
6802
#13
25.13.7
24.921.2
Auto3.1
Teleop16.6
End5.4
red by 1.4
614
#17
23.72.1
22.820.7
Auto5.7
Teleop16.3
End1.7
Third
2988
#33
5.33.7
12.99.3
Auto1.8
Teleop3.0
End0.4
blue by 9.5
9214
#19
14.82.1
15.813.7
Auto3.9
Teleop9.6
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
40%Auto oddsMissed35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed