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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions73480204060801001207636

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+32Teleop
+34Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
9Leave6
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +22
9Coral scored#5
34Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
48Total teleop26
Reef
4L4#1
3L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
6Foul points0
76Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.50.5
27.227.6
Auto7.2
Teleop21.3
End1.1
red by 3.2
26.41.6
20.719.0
Auto4.3
Teleop20.4
End1.7
Second
25.10.5
22.222.7
Auto2.5
Teleop20.4
End2.2
red by 5.7
1522
#28
19.41.6
15.914.3
Auto1.6
Teleop16.6
End1.2
Third
3258
#20
14.80.5
10.811.3
Auto3.1
Teleop10.2
End1.5
red by 9.0
3361
#25
5.91.6
8.36.7
Auto0.7
Teleop4.4
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsEarned18%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsEarned30%Barge oddsMissed