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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions883402060801001201408154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+19Teleop
+29Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +16
8Coral scored#6
27Coral points21
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
6Processor points0
8Net points4
14Algae points4
41Total teleop25
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
12Game pieces#8
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +27
12Foul points14
81Total score54

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
422
#1
56.50.7
37.236.5
Auto10.9
Teleop37.1
End8.5
red by 35.4
2998
#18
21.00.1
15.916.0
Auto3.2
Teleop16.7
End1.1
Second
1908
#12
22.40.7
20.319.6
Auto4.2
Teleop14.2
End3.9
red by 9.5
2890
#15
12.90.2
14.514.8
Auto3.2
Teleop8.3
End1.4
Third
4575
#11
21.20.7
17.516.9
Auto5.6
Teleop15.1
End0.5
red by 13.3
8.00.2
7.47.7
Auto1.8
Teleop4.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsEarned20%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed