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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions529202040608010012014016037120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+24
Teleop+79
Endgame+77
Fouls+83
AutonomousBlue +24
0Leave6
3Coral scored#6
13Coral points31
13Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +55
4Coral scored#18
16Coral points65
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
20Total teleop75
Reef
2L4#9
2L3#7
2L2#4
1L1 · trough#4
8Game pieces#26
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +83
0Foul points6
37Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2028
#16
25.71.6
25.023.4
Auto7.0
Teleop16.3
End2.5
blue by 19.8
346
#3
45.62.3
33.736.0
Auto12.1
Teleop32.9
End0.6
Second
15.31.6
15.213.6
Auto3.1
Teleop10.4
End1.9
blue by 24.6
401
#5
39.93.8
28.132.0
Auto12.7
Teleop26.0
End1.2
Third
2068
#27
11.61.6
11.39.7
Auto2.0
Teleop7.0
End2.6
blue by 5.5
619
#17
17.03.8
17.721.5
Auto5.8
Teleop10.1
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
17%Auto oddsMissed84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsMissed