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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions58652040801007172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+9
+3Endgame
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +6
6Leave9
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
6Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +3
10Coral scored#11
35Coral points40
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
6Processor points0
8Net points12
14Algae points12
49Total teleop52
Reef
5L4#4
2L3#5
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
13Game pieces#15
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
2Foul points6
71Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
422
#1
56.51.4
40.842.2
Auto10.9
Teleop37.1
End8.5
red by 27.4
836
#7
29.00.7
28.529.2
Auto5.7
Teleop19.9
End3.3
Second
1793
#23
11.81.4
8.910.3
Auto0.6
Teleop9.1
End2.0
blue by 13.8
25.60.4
20.420.8
Auto6.0
Teleop17.2
End2.4
Third
8.01.4
5.67.0
Auto1.8
Teleop4.6
End1.5
blue by 7.4
15.30.7
10.511.2
Auto3.1
Teleop10.4
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsMissed34%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
69%Barge oddsEarned29%Barge oddsMissed