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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions68530204060801001201406668

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+8
Endgame+8
Fouls+2
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave6
2Coral scored#3
10Coral points13
16Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +5
8Coral scored#10
30Coral points35
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
40Total teleop45
Reef
3L4#5
4L3#4
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#15
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
6Foul points0
66Total score68

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2028
#16
25.70.0
23.323.3
Auto7.0
Teleop16.3
End2.5
red by 0.8
2363
#14
25.01.6
21.723.2
Auto5.2
Teleop13.4
End6.4
Second
1908
#12
22.40.0
23.923.9
Auto4.2
Teleop14.2
End3.9
red by 1.2
4575
#11
21.21.6
19.621.1
Auto5.6
Teleop15.1
End0.5
Third
3072
#25
18.00.0
12.912.9
Auto3.6
Teleop12.9
End1.5
red by 10.0
8.01.6
9.210.8
Auto1.8
Teleop4.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed58%Barge oddsMissed