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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions739640608012014016012592

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+25Teleop
+35Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave6
6Coral scored#2
30Coral points10
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +11
16Coral scored#13
57Coral points48
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
81Total teleop70
Reef
9L4#4
7L3#6
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points2
125Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
422
#1
56.54.7
45.350.1
Auto10.9
Teleop37.1
End8.5
red by 10.9
346
#3
45.60.2
40.540.7
Auto12.1
Teleop32.9
End0.6
Second
25.63.6
21.024.6
Auto6.0
Teleop17.2
End2.4
blue by 9.5
35.10.2
30.230.4
Auto6.7
Teleop26.3
End2.1
Third
4286
#13
12.43.6
5.48.9
Auto4.1
Teleop7.1
End1.2
blue by 8.1
3939
#24
20.40.3
15.816.1
Auto3.6
Teleop16.5
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
48%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned15%Barge oddsMissed