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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions684002060801001201406037

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+27Teleop
+29Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
9Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +18
8Coral scored#4
28Coral points14
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
6Processor points6
4Net points0
10Algae points6
38Total teleop20
Reef
3L4#1
3L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
11Game pieces#5
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
6Foul points12
60Total score37

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
836
#7
29.00.6
28.728.1
Auto5.7
Teleop19.9
End3.3
red by 12.0
619
#17
17.01.4
16.615.2
Auto5.8
Teleop10.1
End1.1
Second
4575
#11
21.20.6
21.120.5
Auto5.6
Teleop15.1
End0.5
red by 8.4
2890
#15
12.91.4
12.911.5
Auto3.2
Teleop8.3
End1.4
Third
1793
#23
11.80.6
11.711.1
Auto0.6
Teleop9.1
End2.0
red by 0.2
2068
#27
11.61.4
12.811.4
Auto2.0
Teleop7.0
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsEarned