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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7354020408010012014016010378

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+13Teleop
+13Endgame
+25Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave9
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points4
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +10
13Coral scored#9
47Coral points31
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
6Processor points12
8Net points8
14Algae points20
61Total teleop51
Reef
7L4#3
2L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
17Game pieces#14
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +25
12Foul points0
103Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
25.61.6
24.626.2
Auto6.0
Teleop17.2
End2.4
red by 0.2
122
#19
25.42.0
24.926.9
Auto2.7
Teleop16.1
End6.6
Second
2363
#14
25.02.0
23.225.2
Auto5.2
Teleop13.4
End6.4
red by 4.5
3939
#24
20.42.0
16.118.1
Auto3.6
Teleop16.5
End0.3
Third
2998
#18
21.01.6
18.620.3
Auto3.2
Teleop16.7
End1.1
red by 3.0
3072
#25
18.02.0
12.914.9
Auto3.6
Teleop12.9
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
39%Auto oddsEarned38%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsEarned