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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions568601001506633

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+31Teleop
+33Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave0
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points9
20Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +20
8Coral scored#3
30Coral points10
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
40Total teleop20
Reef
3L4#1
4L3#2
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#7
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points0
66Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
346
#3
45.61.0
25.426.4
Auto12.1
Teleop32.9
End0.6
red by 5.6
401
#5
39.94.4
29.525.1
Auto12.7
Teleop26.0
End1.2
Second
25.61.0
14.615.6
Auto6.0
Teleop17.2
End2.4
red by 3.1
1908
#12
22.44.4
23.118.7
Auto4.2
Teleop14.2
End3.9
Third
3072
#25
18.01.6
11.713.3
Auto3.6
Teleop12.9
End1.5
red by 5.1
2890
#15
12.94.4
20.215.8
Auto3.2
Teleop8.3
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
44%Auto oddsMissed56%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed47%Barge oddsMissed