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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions686001001502002506561

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+20Teleop
+22Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
0Leave3
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
9Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +14
9Coral scored#7
34Coral points26
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
44Total teleop30
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#2
3L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#8
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
6Foul points24
65Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.50.2
30.630.4
Auto7.8
Teleop18.0
End5.7
red by 3.5
977
#8
28.12.0
25.223.2
Auto4.0
Teleop22.4
End1.6
Second
4575
#11
21.20.2
20.119.9
Auto5.6
Teleop15.1
End0.5
red by 4.2
619
#17
17.02.0
18.216.2
Auto5.8
Teleop10.1
End1.1
Third
6882
#21
14.70.2
9.79.6
Auto3.2
Teleop9.1
End2.4
red by 6.8
8.02.0
11.79.7
Auto1.8
Teleop4.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsMissed41%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsMissed