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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions399502060801201401605383

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+38
Endgame+42
Fouls+30
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +35
3Coral scored#9
9Coral points32
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#3
6Processor points6
0Net points12
6Algae points18
15Total teleop50
Reef
1L4#4
1L3#2
1L2#2
0L1 · trough#1
4Game pieces#13
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
30Foul points18
53Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1908
#12
22.42.0
18.716.7
Auto4.2
Teleop14.2
End3.9
blue by 34.0
422
#1
56.51.6
33.531.9
Auto10.9
Teleop37.1
End8.5
Second
3359
#26
15.82.0
10.48.4
Auto1.7
Teleop13.6
End0.5
blue by 9.2
2363
#14
25.01.6
27.125.4
Auto5.2
Teleop13.4
End6.4
Third
1793
#23
11.82.0
11.89.8
Auto0.6
Teleop9.1
End2.0
blue by 8.6
3939
#24
20.41.6
19.117.5
Auto3.6
Teleop16.5
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
25%Auto oddsMissed45%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsMissed