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Red156
568776.8
252326.7
854428.3
Blue83
669118.2
84217.4
910138.9
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions154675010020015683

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+63Teleop
+75Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave9
6Coral scored#0
30Coral points0
30Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +42
22Coral scored#12
78Coral points44
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#3
12Processor points12
20Net points12
32Algae points24
110Total teleop68
Reef
7L4#6
9L3#3
6L2#2
6L1 · trough#1
35Game pieces#17
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +73
0Foul points2
156Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.81.2
71.672.9
Auto20.0
Teleop49.2
End7.5
red by 37.8
9101
#20
38.90.2
37.938.1
Auto5.3
Teleop32.2
End1.4
Second
8544
#18
28.31.2
28.629.8
Auto4.2
Teleop21.5
End2.5
red by 10.1
6691
#24
18.20.2
19.619.7
Auto4.3
Teleop11.3
End2.6
Third
2523
#19
26.71.2
26.227.5
Auto5.3
Teleop19.6
End1.8
red by 19.4
8421
#32
7.40.2
9.810.0
Auto1.4
Teleop3.7
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
41%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsEarned47%Barge oddsMissed