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Qual 592025 NE District UVM Event
Red172
549422.7
431134.2
9557.4
Blue206
83956.5
23739.0
693341.5
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13715550100200250172206

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+28
Endgame+28
Fouls+34
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave6
5Coral scored#4
27Coral points21
33Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +34
20Coral scored#26
73Coral points95
5Processor algae#5
5Net algae#8
30Processor points30
20Net points32
50Algae points62
123Total teleop157
Reef
6L4#15
8L3#5
7L2#4
4L1 · trough#6
35Game pieces#43
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +34
0Foul points6
172Total score206

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
95
#8
57.41.8
55.6→57.4
Auto17.8
Teleop33.0
End6.6
red by 0.9
839
#3
56.53.0
48.6→51.6
Auto10.3
Teleop36.3
End10.0
Second
4311
#16
34.21.8
35.7→37.5
Auto6.4
Teleop19.7
End8.2
blue by 7.3
6933
#5
41.53.0
38.4→41.4
Auto8.7
Teleop29.5
End3.3
Third
5494
#30
22.71.8
20.9→22.8
Auto4.6
Teleop15.7
End2.5
blue by 16.3
237
#14
39.03.0
38.8→41.8
Auto6.6
Teleop29.9
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed35%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned76%Barge oddsEarned