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Red106
15740.9
457224.4
34825.4
Blue121
172947.7
549422.7
107345.5
21%Model gave it79%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9212450150200106121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+23
Endgame+15
Fouls+15
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave6
3Coral scored#3
16Coral points17
16Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +16
15Coral scored#21
54Coral points76
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
78Total teleop94
Reef
5L4#10
6L3#5
3L2#4
4L1 · trough#5
23Game pieces#28
BargeRed +8
12Cage & park4
12Total endgame4
Penalties & totalBlue +15
0Foul points0
106Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
157
#12
40.90.4
40.540.9
Auto4.4
Teleop30.4
End6.1
blue by 6.8
1729
#13
47.70.2
47.047.2
Auto10.6
Teleop32.5
End4.6
Second
348
#26
25.40.4
25.125.4
Auto4.1
Teleop19.0
End2.3
blue by 20.1
45.50.2
44.845.0
Auto10.7
Teleop26.8
End8.1
Third
4572
#15
24.40.4
24.124.4
Auto8.5
Teleop13.2
End2.7
red by 1.8
5494
#30
22.70.2
22.022.2
Auto4.6
Teleop15.7
End2.5