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Red198
997326.2
999840.4
291098.5
Blue87
189916.8
241257.5
252246.6
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1571378010012018020019887

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+111Teleop
+111Endgame
+111Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
0Leave0
11Coral scored#5
54Coral points26
54Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +83
28Coral scored#8
102Coral points27
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
12Processor points12
16Net points8
28Algae points20
130Total teleop47
Reef
15L4#5
9L3#2
9L2#3
6L1 · trough#3
45Game pieces#17
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +111
0Foul points0
198Total score87

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
98.53.0
95.198.1
Auto27.9
Teleop61.9
End8.8
red by 41.0
57.52.7
50.547.7
Auto12.9
Teleop34.6
End10.1
Second
9998
#20
40.44.3
31.235.5
Auto8.6
Teleop30.1
End1.4
blue by 6.1
2522
#23
46.62.7
50.848.1
Auto13.7
Teleop27.9
End4.9
Third
9973
#14
26.24.3
18.322.6
Auto3.2
Teleop15.8
End6.9
red by 9.4
1899
#37
16.82.7
18.816.1
Auto4.6
Teleop12.0
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
65%Coral oddsEarned63%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsEarned