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Red191
241257.5
293058.2
212262.9
Blue159
189916.8
94834.0
366377.3
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18614050100200250300191159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+12Teleop
+32Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave9
10Coral scored#6
48Coral points28
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +2
21Coral scored#22
74Coral points80
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
18Processor points6
12Net points20
30Algae points26
104Total teleop106
Reef
12L4#12
7L3#8
7L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
37Game pieces#34
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +32
0Foul points0
191Total score159

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.91.1
57.058.1
Auto16.0
Teleop36.7
End10.2
blue by 14.3
77.31.5
75.176.6
Auto17.4
Teleop49.2
End10.7
Second
2930
#15
58.21.1
55.957.0
Auto18.1
Teleop33.2
End6.9
red by 24.2
948
#26
34.01.5
33.635.1
Auto8.1
Teleop23.3
End2.5
Third
57.51.1
50.251.3
Auto12.9
Teleop34.6
End10.1
red by 40.8
1899
#37
16.81.5
16.918.4
Auto4.6
Teleop12.0
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
77%Coral oddsEarned60%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsEarned