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Red106
593737.5
903637.7
290623.7
Blue35
292718.1
491138.0
198324.0
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8481406010012014016010635

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+43Teleop
+53Endgame
+71Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +40
12Coral scored#4
44Coral points16
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
6Processor points6
12Net points0
18Algae points6
62Total teleop22
Reef
4L4#2
5L3#2
3L2#0
2L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#6
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +71
18Foul points0
106Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9036
#15
37.70.7
28.229.0
Auto5.1
Teleop31.7
End1.0
blue by 0.2
4911
#16
38.02.8
30.627.9
Auto4.2
Teleop30.8
End3.0
Second
5937
#12
37.50.7
26.327.0
Auto3.5
Teleop28.6
End5.4
red by 13.5
1983
#31
24.02.8
25.722.9
Auto6.1
Teleop17.3
End0.6
Third
2906
#29
23.70.7
22.523.3
Auto4.6
Teleop18.0
End1.1
red by 5.5
2927
#26
18.12.8
20.117.3
Auto3.8
Teleop11.0
End3.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
20%Auto oddsEarned20%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed