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Red140
94843.6
805119.7
252257.2
Blue39
457917.3
903637.7
635020.8
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12448010015020014039

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+89Teleop
+101Endgame
+101Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave6
5Coral scored#0
24Coral points0
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +65
13Coral scored#6
46Coral points21
4Processor algae#0
6Net algae#2
24Processor points0
24Net points8
48Algae points8
94Total teleop29
Reef
5L4#2
5L3#2
4L2#1
4L1 · trough#1
28Game pieces#8
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +101
0Foul points0
140Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.22.1
50.552.6
Auto17.2
Teleop38.2
End1.7
red by 19.4
9036
#15
37.71.2
29.027.8
Auto5.1
Teleop31.7
End1.0
Second
948
#9
43.62.1
43.145.3
Auto7.1
Teleop29.3
End7.2
red by 22.8
6350
#14
20.81.2
16.014.9
Auto3.7
Teleop12.7
End4.4
Third
8051
#20
19.73.5
14.618.1
Auto5.4
Teleop11.6
End2.7
red by 2.4
4579
#34
17.31.9
11.49.5
Auto1.6
Teleop14.7
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
23%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed