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Red84
498018.2
290622.7
368129.5
Blue88
491819.4
902337.6
292717.1
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions68744060801001208488

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
+2Teleop
0Endgame0
Fouls+4
AutonomousBlue +8
0Leave0
2Coral scored#3
9Coral points17
9Total auto17
TeleoperatedRed +10
13Coral scored#14
45Coral points49
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
12Processor points6
12Net points4
24Algae points10
69Total teleop59
Reef
6L4#5
4L3#5
4L2#3
1L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +4
2Foul points6
84Total score88

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.51.3
28.229.5
Auto4.9
Teleop20.3
End4.3
blue by 8.1
37.60.9
36.637.6
Auto6.2
Teleop29.6
End1.9
Second
2906
#14
22.71.3
19.020.2
Auto4.6
Teleop16.8
End1.3
red by 3.3
4918
#26
19.40.8
16.617.5
Auto3.9
Teleop14.5
End1.0
Third
4980
#20
18.21.3
17.618.9
Auto2.8
Teleop13.2
End2.3
red by 1.1
2927
#25
17.10.9
16.217.1
Auto2.3
Teleop13.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
37%Auto oddsMissed52%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
56%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed