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Red181
291073.4
944262.0
290622.7
Blue109
9498.9
48845.6
241240.5
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1698450100150200250181109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+70Teleop
+78Endgame
+72Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave6
6Coral scored#3
30Coral points17
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +63
21Coral scored#16
75Coral points58
5Processor algae#2
8Net algae#1
30Processor points12
32Net points4
62Algae points16
137Total teleop74
Reef
8L4#5
7L3#7
9L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
40Game pieces#22
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +72
0Foul points6
181Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.40.6
71.772.3
Auto11.7
Teleop53.7
End8.0
red by 27.8
488
#4
45.60.3
44.244.4
Auto8.9
Teleop33.9
End2.7
Second
62.00.6
60.360.9
Auto14.1
Teleop46.0
End1.9
red by 21.6
40.50.3
39.139.3
Auto8.4
Teleop30.8
End1.3
Third
2906
#14
22.70.6
21.021.6
Auto4.6
Teleop16.8
End1.3
red by 13.8
949
#31
8.90.3
7.57.8
Auto3.3
Teleop4.0
End1.5