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Red154
177870.8
131842.6
968015.8
Blue135
204652.1
290323.7
582730.2
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13091406080100120140160180200154135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+29Teleop
+19Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave3
7Coral scored#4
34Coral points20
37Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +15
23Coral scored#13
81Coral points48
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#8
12Processor points18
20Net points32
32Algae points50
113Total teleop98
Reef
10L4#7
9L3#5
7L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
0Foul points0
154Total score135

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.83.1
66.169.2
Auto15.9
Teleop53.6
End1.3
red by 18.6
52.13.6
47.350.9
Auto10.5
Teleop39.2
End2.5
Second
42.63.1
35.939.0
Auto6.7
Teleop30.2
End5.8
red by 12.4
5827
#16
30.23.6
24.227.8
Auto10.9
Teleop17.4
End1.9
Third
9680
#22
15.83.1
13.816.9
Auto6.3
Teleop7.8
End1.7
blue by 7.9
2903
#17
23.73.6
19.122.7
Auto3.7
Teleop12.7
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsMissed47%Barge oddsEarned