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Red129
945053.1
417317.6
1041624.5
Blue107
252238.8
408931.7
382628.8
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9111150100150129107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+6Teleop
+22Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave0
6Coral scored#4
30Coral points20
30Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +4
13Coral scored#14
47Coral points49
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#5
12Processor points18
24Net points20
36Algae points38
83Total teleop87
Reef
8L4#5
5L3#6
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#26
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points0
129Total score107

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.12.9
49.051.9
Auto13.5
Teleop30.6
End9.0
red by 14.3
38.80.2
38.838.9
Auto13.7
Teleop24.6
End0.6
Second
24.52.9
20.123.0
Auto4.6
Teleop16.6
End3.3
blue by 7.1
4089
#14
31.70.2
30.130.2
Auto5.0
Teleop25.1
End1.5
Third
4173
#27
17.62.9
15.318.2
Auto3.9
Teleop12.2
End1.5
blue by 11.2
3826
#19
28.80.2
28.428.5
Auto4.7
Teleop21.6
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsEarned33%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsMissed