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Red149
293053.2
491815.3
945053.1
Blue146
131842.6
292916.1
944252.8
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12911480100120140160180149146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
Teleop+15
Endgame+3
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave3
10Coral scored#4
48Coral points20
51Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +43
16Coral scored#22
56Coral points79
1Processor algae#3
1Net algae#3
6Processor points18
4Net points12
10Algae points30
66Total teleop109
Reef
7L4#8
10L3#9
4L2#6
5L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#32
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +3
6Foul points0
149Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.20.5
52.452.9
Auto12.8
Teleop30.2
End10.2
red by 0.4
9442
#12
52.80.8
51.952.8
Auto8.4
Teleop42.7
End1.6
Second
53.10.5
52.352.9
Auto13.5
Teleop30.6
End9.0
red by 10.5
42.60.8
41.842.6
Auto6.7
Teleop30.2
End5.8
Third
4918
#18
15.30.5
14.515.1
Auto5.3
Teleop9.6
End0.5
blue by 0.8
2929
#33
16.10.8
15.316.1
Auto3.8
Teleop11.3
End1.1