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Red103
469226.8
529516.5
299033.4
Blue114
762741.8
292630.6
387611.2
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions94794060100120140103114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+25
Endgame+17
Fouls+11
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave6
1Coral scored#3
3Coral points17
9Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +11
15Coral scored#18
54Coral points65
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
12Processor points12
8Net points8
20Algae points20
74Total teleop85
Reef
5L4#10
5L3#4
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#25
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +11
6Foul points0
103Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2990
#16
33.40.2
35.335.5
Auto3.3
Teleop23.4
End6.8
blue by 8.4
41.82.0
36.238.2
Auto11.2
Teleop27.7
End2.9
Second
4692
#30
26.80.2
23.824.0
Auto2.6
Teleop22.6
End1.5
blue by 3.8
2926
#18
30.62.0
28.630.7
Auto5.5
Teleop22.9
End2.2
Third
5295
#20
16.50.2
17.517.8
Auto1.8
Teleop12.9
End1.8
red by 5.2
3876
#34
11.23.2
3.16.3
Auto1.9
Teleop7.4
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
39%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
69%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed