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Red165
546859.2
945065.6
406137.7
Blue43
371211.9
292630.6
607616.7
100%Model gave it0%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15647010020016543

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+100Teleop
+122Endgame
+122Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
3Leave6
8Coral scored#1
41Coral points3
44Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +65
20Coral scored#5
71Coral points18
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#3
12Processor points0
12Net points12
24Algae points12
95Total teleop30
Reef
8L4#3
10L3#1
6L2#1
4L1 · trough#1
33Game pieces#9
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +122
0Foul points0
165Total score43

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.62.2
54.757.0
Auto17.7
Teleop38.0
End9.8
red by 35.0
2926
#18
30.60.7
22.722.0
Auto5.5
Teleop22.9
End2.2
Second
59.22.5
49.351.8
Auto15.3
Teleop35.0
End8.9
red by 42.4
6076
#26
16.70.7
13.713.0
Auto4.6
Teleop11.6
End0.5
Third
4061
#12
37.72.2
27.229.5
Auto6.1
Teleop29.4
End2.2
red by 25.8
3712
#32
11.90.7
17.516.8
Auto2.0
Teleop8.8
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned23%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
22%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed