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Red140
382623.8
281143.4
95548.2
Blue122
413129.3
469226.8
762741.8
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14712250100200140122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+6Teleop
+8Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +15
3Leave6
7Coral scored#3
34Coral points16
37Total auto22
TeleoperatedBlue +9
14Coral scored#18
51Coral points64
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
12Processor points12
12Net points8
24Algae points20
75Total teleop84
Reef
10L4#5
5L3#8
4L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#25
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +18
12Foul points2
140Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
955
#10
48.20.2
48.048.2
Auto14.9
Teleop30.8
End2.5
red by 6.4
41.80.5
40.641.1
Auto11.2
Teleop27.7
End2.9
Second
43.40.2
43.143.4
Auto9.0
Teleop26.8
End7.6
red by 14.1
29.30.5
28.128.6
Auto5.0
Teleop17.4
End7.0
Third
3826
#21
23.80.2
23.523.8
Auto4.8
Teleop14.6
End4.5
blue by 3.0
4692
#30
26.80.5
25.626.1
Auto2.6
Teleop22.6
End1.5