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Red156
546859.2
159519.3
131853.4
Blue104
498027.8
1041631.7
49233.9
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14597406080120160180200156104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+32Teleop
+36Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave0
7Coral scored#3
34Coral points16
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +11
20Coral scored#13
73Coral points46
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#3
6Processor points18
8Net points12
14Algae points30
87Total teleop76
Reef
11L4#6
7L3#4
6L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#22
BargeRed +4
16Cage & park12
16Total endgame12
Penalties & totalRed +52
16Foul points0
156Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.20.3
57.457.7
Auto15.3
Teleop35.0
End8.9
red by 25.3
492
#25
33.90.3
33.033.3
Auto5.7
Teleop27.4
End0.8
Second
53.40.3
51.651.9
Auto12.2
Teleop36.3
End5.0
red by 21.7
31.70.3
30.931.1
Auto5.2
Teleop23.6
End2.9
Third
1595
#33
19.30.3
17.517.8
Auto5.6
Teleop12.2
End1.5
blue by 8.6
4980
#22
27.80.3
27.027.3
Auto4.7
Teleop18.9
End4.3