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Red117
558618.6
420731.4
590338.0
Blue44
402112.7
171617.7
802420.4
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9066020408010012014011744

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+61Teleop
+85Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave6
4Coral scored#1
19Coral points6
22Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +51
14Coral scored#4
51Coral points14
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
6Processor points0
12Net points4
18Algae points4
69Total teleop18
Reef
7L4#1
6L3#2
2L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#6
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +73
0Foul points12
117Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5903
#23Sur
38.02.7
36.539.2
Auto7.7
Teleop24.3
End5.9
red by 17.6
8024
#30
20.43.7
19.515.8
Auto4.6
Teleop11.5
End4.2
Second
4207
#15
31.44.0
22.426.4
Auto5.9
Teleop19.1
End6.4
red by 13.7
1716
#41
17.72.5
21.519.1
Auto4.9
Teleop11.3
End1.5
Third
5586
#44
18.62.7
16.018.7
Auto3.4
Teleop12.7
End2.5
red by 5.9
4021
#48
12.73.7
19.015.3
Auto3.6
Teleop7.9
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsMissed