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Red44
401117.9
70619.5
402112.7
Blue125
638130.8
882121.7
870123.6
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions477002040608010012044125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+41
Endgame+57
Fouls+81
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave0
3Coral scored#4
16Coral points20
16Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +37
4Coral scored#11
14Coral points39
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#5
6Processor points6
8Net points20
14Algae points26
28Total teleop65
Reef
2L4#4
2L3#6
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#3
10Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +16
0Cage & park16
0Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +81
0Foul points24
44Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
706
#21
19.50.2
17.617.4
Auto5.8
Teleop12.0
End1.8
blue by 11.2
6381
#24
30.82.8
25.027.8
Auto5.8
Teleop21.7
End3.3
Second
4011
#28
17.90.1
15.015.0
Auto3.7
Teleop11.2
End3.0
blue by 5.7
8701
#20
23.64.6
19.524.1
Auto5.3
Teleop13.0
End5.3
Third
4021
#48
12.70.2
12.812.6
Auto3.6
Teleop7.9
End1.2
blue by 9.0
8821
#26
21.74.6
15.219.8
Auto4.9
Teleop15.2
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
54%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsEarned