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Red58
957820.0
638130.8
914915.4
Blue53
282623.8
1718.2
283036.4
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions79750501001505853

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+3Teleop
+5Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave6
1Coral scored#1
7Coral points3
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +1
8Coral scored#6
29Coral points22
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
39Total teleop40
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
11Game pieces#11
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points0
58Total score53

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6381
#24
30.80.8
27.827.0
Auto5.8
Teleop21.7
End3.3
blue by 5.6
2830
#33
36.41.8
35.834.0
Auto5.3
Teleop30.8
End0.3
Second
9578
#35
20.00.8
23.422.6
Auto4.9
Teleop14.5
End0.7
blue by 3.8
2826
#27
23.81.8
22.520.7
Auto4.4
Teleop13.9
End5.5
Third
9149
#25
15.41.3
18.517.2
Auto3.7
Teleop10.2
End1.5
red by 7.2
171
#49
8.21.8
10.78.9
Auto3.1
Teleop3.9
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
42%Auto oddsMissed36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed37%Barge oddsMissed