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Red78
283040.4
710321.7
761915.7
Blue106
171453.8
282633.1
558626.8
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7811905010015020078106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+38
Endgame+30
Fouls+28
AutonomousBlue +10
0Leave3
3Coral scored#4
13Coral points20
13Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +28
11Coral scored#12
39Coral points43
1Processor algae#3
1Net algae#4
6Processor points18
4Net points16
10Algae points34
49Total teleop77
Reef
5L4#6
3L3#5
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#23
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
2Foul points0
78Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.40.0
31.231.2
Auto8.8
Teleop24.1
End7.4
blue by 13.4
53.80.2
45.946.1
Auto9.6
Teleop37.4
End6.6
Second
7103
#13
21.70.0
28.728.8
Auto6.3
Teleop14.2
End1.2
blue by 11.4
33.10.2
39.239.4
Auto5.7
Teleop24.5
End2.9
Third
7619
#14
15.70.0
15.715.7
Auto2.3
Teleop8.7
End4.7
blue by 11.1
5586
#11
26.80.2
18.418.6
Auto2.9
Teleop22.5
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsMissed45%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsMissed