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Red89
17165.7
283040.4
171453.8
Blue50
710321.7
338114.1
282633.1
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions102680501502008950

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+21Teleop
+39Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave0
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points12
19Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +14
7Coral scored#6
26Coral points22
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
12Processor points6
8Net points4
20Algae points10
46Total teleop32
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#3
1L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#10
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +39
0Foul points0
89Total score50

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.80.1
48.948.8
Auto9.6
Teleop37.4
End6.6
red by 20.7
33.11.1
30.529.4
Auto5.7
Teleop24.5
End2.9
Second
40.40.1
38.538.4
Auto8.8
Teleop24.1
End7.4
red by 18.7
7103
#13
21.71.1
23.622.4
Auto6.3
Teleop14.2
End1.2
Third
1716
#16
5.70.1
3.33.2
Auto1.2
Teleop3.4
End1.1
blue by 8.4
3381
#10
14.11.1
13.011.9
Auto4.8
Teleop8.8
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
65%Barge oddsEarned35%Barge oddsMissed