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Red103
453124.5
283040.4
361828.7
Blue40
17165.7
99936.8
761915.7
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions932905015010340

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+37Teleop
+59Endgame
+63Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave3
4Coral scored#1
21Coral points3
27Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +16
10Coral scored#7
36Coral points26
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
46Total teleop30
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#3
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#9
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +63
4Foul points0
103Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.41.4
30.531.9
Auto8.8
Teleop24.1
End7.4
red by 24.7
7619
#14
15.70.4
20.420.8
Auto2.3
Teleop8.7
End4.7
Second
28.71.4
21.923.2
Auto6.3
Teleop21.3
End1.1
red by 22.0
6.80.7
1.01.7
Auto2.1
Teleop3.4
End1.3
Third
24.51.4
26.027.4
Auto5.1
Teleop13.5
End5.9
red by 18.7
1716
#16
5.70.4
12.412.8
Auto1.2
Teleop3.4
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsEarned43%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
57%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed