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Red6
453124.5
283040.4
17165.7
Blue0
99988.8
99998.8
99978.8
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions892005010015060

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
0Teleop0
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave0
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
0Total auto0
Teleoperatedlevel
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
0Total teleop0
Reef
0L4#0
0L3#0
0L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
0Game pieces#0
BargeRed +6
6Cage & park0
6Total endgame0
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
6Total score0

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.41.4
40.539.0
Auto8.8
Teleop24.1
End7.4
red by 31.6
9997
Unranked
8.81.2
11.29.9
Auto1.7
Teleop6.6
End1.3
Second
24.51.4
24.523.1
Auto5.1
Teleop13.5
End5.9
red by 15.6
9998
Unranked
8.81.2
11.29.9
Auto1.7
Teleop6.6
End1.3
Third
1716
#16
5.71.4
5.84.3
Auto1.2
Teleop3.4
End1.1
blue by 3.1
9999
Unranked
8.81.2
11.29.9
Auto1.7
Teleop6.6
End1.3