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Red174
220244.9
204044.6
53740.5
Blue122
270433.8
70626.5
880231.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14578050100200250174122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
+22Teleop
+46Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousBlue +10
3Leave3
3Coral scored#5
13Coral points23
16Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +32
26Coral scored#17
92Coral points60
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#4
18Processor points18
16Net points16
34Algae points34
126Total teleop94
Reef
9L4#9
10L3#6
5L2#5
5L1 · trough#2
36Game pieces#29
BargeRed +24
26Cage & park2
26Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +52
6Foul points0
174Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.91.5
36.437.9
Auto9.0
Teleop33.1
End2.8
red by 11.2
2704
#29
33.81.6
27.028.5
Auto7.6
Teleop25.7
End0.5
Second
44.61.5
37.539.0
Auto9.5
Teleop28.8
End6.3
red by 12.7
8802
#28
31.92.6
24.326.9
Auto7.7
Teleop23.4
End0.8
Third
537
#14
40.51.9
46.948.8
Auto5.6
Teleop30.8
End4.0
red by 14.0
706
#18
26.51.9
21.022.9
Auto6.7
Teleop15.6
End4.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned58%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed