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Red146
478724.6
465569.3
1028731.1
Blue151
179251.0
429626.8
167535.1
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11910450150200146151

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+3Teleop
Endgame+17
Fouls+5
AutonomousBlue +1
0Leave0
4Coral scored#5
22Coral points23
22Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +4
22Coral scored#19
78Coral points70
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
106Total teleop102
Reef
11L4#11
7L3#6
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +5
12Foul points0
146Total score151

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4655
#15
69.31.2
58.559.7
Auto17.4
Teleop44.3
End7.7
red by 18.3
1792
#16
51.03.1
41.344.3
Auto10.9
Teleop34.3
End5.8
Second
31.11.9
17.519.4
Auto5.4
Teleop23.5
End2.3
blue by 3.9
1675
#35
35.13.7
27.531.3
Auto3.1
Teleop25.3
End6.7
Third
4787
#30
24.61.3
25.726.9
Auto4.7
Teleop16.0
End3.9
blue by 2.2
4296
#32
26.83.1
24.427.5
Auto7.6
Teleop17.0
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned61%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
38%Coral oddsEarned16%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
81%Barge oddsMissed52%Barge oddsEarned