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Red49
790017.7
942530.7
341815.8
Blue109
874446.3
509618.1
884728.6
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions667805010015020049109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+48
Endgame+60
Fouls+60
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave3
1Coral scored#1
3Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +51
7Coral scored#19
25Coral points68
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
35Total teleop86
Reef
4L4#7
2L3#6
1L2#5
1L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +12
2Cage & park14
2Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +60
0Foul points0
49Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9425
#33
30.72.0
17.615.6
Auto6.8
Teleop20.4
End3.5
blue by 15.6
8744
#11
46.32.9
36.539.5
Auto9.1
Teleop32.6
End4.6
Second
7900
#45
17.71.2
22.921.7
Auto5.1
Teleop9.9
End2.7
blue by 10.9
8847
#40
28.63.7
17.921.6
Auto1.9
Teleop20.0
End6.7
Third
3418
#37
15.81.6
17.115.5
Auto5.0
Teleop9.7
End1.1
blue by 2.3
5096
#34
18.13.7
15.419.1
Auto2.5
Teleop11.8
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsEarned