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Red103
179251.0
207724.5
884728.6
Blue109
130651.1
1043016.1
429626.8
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105900200300400500600103109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+24
Endgame+12
Fouls+6
AutonomousBlue +8
6Leave6
2Coral scored#4
10Coral points18
16Total auto24
TeleoperatedBlue +16
14Coral scored#15
49Coral points55
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
6Processor points12
12Net points16
18Algae points28
67Total teleop83
Reef
6L4#9
5L3#3
2L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#25
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
6Foul points0
103Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1792
#16Sur
51.00.4
44.344.8
Auto10.9
Teleop34.3
End5.8
blue by 0.1
1306
#10Sur
51.12.0
39.641.5
Auto10.7
Teleop36.1
End4.3
Second
8847
#40
28.60.7
21.622.3
Auto1.9
Teleop20.0
End6.7
red by 1.8
4296
#32
26.82.0
27.529.4
Auto7.6
Teleop17.0
End2.2
Third
2077
#46
24.50.4
24.725.1
Auto4.7
Teleop16.5
End3.3
red by 8.5
16.13.3
12.515.8
Auto2.1
Teleop12.3
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
60%Auto oddsEarned82%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
61%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed