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Red130
657454.9
204044.6
509618.1
Blue158
167535.1
623741.3
465569.3
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11214550100200250130158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+24
Endgame+22
Fouls+28
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave0
5Coral scored#6
23Coral points30
23Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +17
14Coral scored#22
51Coral points80
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
18Processor points6
12Net points12
30Algae points18
81Total teleop98
Reef
9L4#11
4L3#8
4L2#6
2L1 · trough#3
25Game pieces#32
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
0Foul points6
130Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6574
#21
54.91.9
43.945.8
Auto9.2
Teleop36.7
End8.9
blue by 14.4
4655
#15
69.31.8
59.761.4
Auto17.4
Teleop44.3
End7.7
Second
44.61.9
39.040.9
Auto9.5
Teleop28.8
End6.3
red by 3.3
6237
#17
41.31.8
34.436.2
Auto5.8
Teleop29.4
End6.2
Third
5096
#34
18.13.2
18.521.7
Auto2.5
Teleop11.8
End3.8
blue by 16.9
1675
#35
35.12.0
31.333.2
Auto3.1
Teleop25.3
End6.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned56%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed46%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
78%Barge oddsEarned87%Barge oddsEarned