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Red156
465569.3
874446.3
207724.5
Blue158
791546.7
622356.4
373428.1
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15312850100200250156158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+15Auto
+8Teleop
+10Endgame
Fouls+2
AutonomousRed +15
9Leave3
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points12
30Total auto15
TeleoperatedBlue +7
19Coral scored#15
70Coral points55
3Processor algae#4
4Net algae#8
18Processor points24
16Net points32
34Algae points56
104Total teleop111
Reef
7L4#6
9L3#6
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#29
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
6Foul points18
156Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4655
#15
69.30.8
63.464.2
Auto17.4
Teleop44.3
End7.7
red by 12.9
6223
#13
56.41.7
52.153.8
Auto10.0
Teleop38.5
End7.9
Second
8744
#11
46.30.8
46.447.2
Auto9.1
Teleop32.6
End4.6
blue by 0.4
7915
#23
46.72.8
32.034.8
Auto7.1
Teleop32.0
End7.6
Third
2077
#46
24.50.8
25.226.0
Auto4.7
Teleop16.5
End3.3
blue by 3.6
3734
#19
28.12.8
27.630.4
Auto5.0
Teleop21.7
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
42%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
70%Barge oddsEarned74%Barge oddsEarned