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Red98
880231.9
976015.8
623741.3
Blue88
478724.6
664324.5
802918.8
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12191501001509888

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+2Teleop
+4Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave0
3Coral scored#2
13Coral points12
19Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +5
9Coral scored#14
33Coral points52
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#4
12Processor points6
24Net points16
36Algae points22
69Total teleop74
Reef
4L4#5
4L3#3
3L2#4
1L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#21
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
6Foul points0
98Total score88

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6237
#17
41.31.5
39.638.1
Auto5.8
Teleop29.4
End6.2
red by 16.7
4787
#30
24.60.1
27.727.6
Auto4.7
Teleop16.0
End3.9
Second
8802
#28
31.92.4
33.030.5
Auto7.7
Teleop23.4
End0.8
red by 7.4
6643
#38
24.50.1
24.524.3
Auto4.9
Teleop19.2
End0.4
Third
9760
#42
15.82.4
20.418.0
Auto4.6
Teleop10.3
End0.9
blue by 3.0
8029
#43
18.80.1
19.719.6
Auto4.2
Teleop13.4
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
17%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed