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Red159
130651.1
270433.8
1028731.1
Blue83
341815.8
1043016.1
853131.8
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1477705010020015983

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+80Teleop
+78Endgame
+76Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave3
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points6
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +66
19Coral scored#13
70Coral points48
5Processor algae#1
9Net algae#4
30Processor points6
36Net points16
66Algae points22
136Total teleop70
Reef
8L4#5
7L3#5
5L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
37Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +2
0Cage & park2
0Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +76
0Foul points2
159Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1306
#10
51.11.1
47.949.0
Auto10.7
Teleop36.1
End4.3
red by 19.3
8531
#31
31.80.7
33.032.3
Auto5.0
Teleop24.9
End2.0
Second
2704
#29
33.81.1
29.830.9
Auto7.6
Teleop25.7
End0.5
red by 17.7
16.11.0
13.712.7
Auto2.1
Teleop12.3
End1.7
Third
31.11.6
33.434.9
Auto5.4
Teleop23.5
End2.3
red by 15.3
3418
#37
15.80.7
14.413.7
Auto5.0
Teleop9.7
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned22%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed