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Red164
207724.5
791546.7
125949.4
Blue88
204044.6
880231.9
884728.6
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12411810014016018016488

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+56Teleop
+76Endgame
+76Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
0Leave6
5Coral scored#2
26Coral points10
26Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +46
19Coral scored#11
68Coral points40
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#2
24Processor points18
20Net points8
44Algae points26
112Total teleop66
Reef
11L4#6
7L3#2
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
33Game pieces#18
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +76
0Foul points0
164Total score88

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1259
#12
49.43.0
45.748.7
Auto12.0
Teleop30.6
End6.9
red by 4.8
44.61.8
42.340.5
Auto9.5
Teleop28.8
End6.3
Second
7915
#23
46.74.3
36.140.4
Auto7.1
Teleop32.0
End7.6
red by 14.8
8802
#28
31.92.6
30.728.1
Auto7.7
Teleop23.4
End0.8
Third
2077
#46
24.53.0
23.826.8
Auto4.7
Teleop16.5
End3.3
blue by 4.1
8847
#40
28.62.6
27.825.2
Auto1.9
Teleop20.0
End6.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsMissed