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Red102
235827.1
220244.9
465569.3
Blue118
664324.5
93047.1
282641.2
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15711350100200250102118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+28
Endgame+16
Fouls+16
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave6
5Coral scored#5
26Coral points24
26Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +24
11Coral scored#17
40Coral points62
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#3
6Processor points12
16Net points12
22Algae points24
62Total teleop86
Reef
8L4#7
4L3#6
2L2#5
2L1 · trough#4
21Game pieces#27
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
0Foul points0
102Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4655
#15
69.32.2
66.864.6
Auto17.4
Teleop44.3
End7.7
red by 22.3
930
#20
47.10.8
43.944.7
Auto11.5
Teleop30.9
End4.6
Second
44.92.2
42.940.7
Auto9.0
Teleop33.1
End2.8
red by 3.7
41.20.8
35.636.5
Auto7.7
Teleop28.0
End5.4
Third
27.12.2
25.423.2
Auto7.1
Teleop11.9
End8.2
red by 2.6
6643
#38
24.50.8
26.026.8
Auto4.9
Teleop19.2
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
26%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned55%Barge oddsMissed