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Red118
940148.8
1026415.5
173262.5
Blue107
593447.3
229038.7
130638.2
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions128123050100150200250300118107

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
Teleop+1
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
6Leave0
3Coral scored#4
17Coral points22
23Total auto22
TeleoperatedBlue +2
12Coral scored#14
43Coral points49
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#5
12Processor points12
24Net points20
36Algae points32
79Total teleop81
Reef
5L4#7
4L3#3
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
23Game pieces#25
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
118Total score107

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
62.50.1
56.356.5
Auto16.3
Teleop37.0
End9.2
red by 15.2
47.30.6
45.444.7
Auto7.9
Teleop28.8
End10.6
Second
48.80.1
43.643.7
Auto15.0
Teleop26.7
End7.1
red by 10.1
2290
#12
38.70.6
32.932.2
Auto10.9
Teleop27.5
End0.3
Third
15.50.2
15.916.1
Auto4.2
Teleop10.2
End1.1
blue by 22.7
1306
#29
38.20.6
38.437.7
Auto7.9
Teleop28.6
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
69%Barge oddsEarned67%Barge oddsMissed