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Red127
642140.8
940148.8
694733.1
Blue117
638134.0
870135.6
130638.2
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13110950100150200127117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+2Teleop
+12Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave0
5Coral scored#5
27Coral points23
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +5
15Coral scored#18
55Coral points66
1Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
6Processor points12
20Net points8
26Algae points20
81Total teleop86
Reef
7L4#9
6L3#6
5L2#4
2L1 · trough#4
26Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points2
127Total score117

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.80.1
48.848.9
Auto15.0
Teleop26.7
End7.1
red by 10.5
1306
#29
38.20.2
38.138.2
Auto7.9
Teleop28.6
End1.7
Second
6421
#24
40.80.1
40.840.9
Auto6.7
Teleop28.9
End5.2
red by 5.3
8701
#13
35.60.2
35.435.6
Auto5.5
Teleop24.5
End5.6
Third
6947
#21
33.10.1
33.133.2
Auto9.9
Teleop18.9
End4.3
blue by 0.9
6381
#16
34.00.2
33.834.0
Auto5.9
Teleop22.1
End6.0