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Red173
463566.7
122030.4
253070.8
Blue218
460765.2
173262.5
318433.3
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions174165100120140200220240260173218

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+27
Endgame+39
Fouls+45
AutonomousBlue +11
3Leave0
9Coral scored#12
44Coral points58
47Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +16
15Coral scored#27
54Coral points98
2Processor algae#2
9Net algae#2
12Processor points12
36Net points8
48Algae points20
102Total teleop118
Reef
5L4#18
8L3#7
6L2#9
5L1 · trough#5
35Game pieces#43
BargeBlue +12
24Cage & park36
24Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +45
0Foul points6
173Total score218

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.80.2
69.069.2
Auto17.1
Teleop44.4
End9.4
red by 5.6
65.21.2
64.465.6
Auto13.8
Teleop44.9
End6.5
Second
66.70.2
64.865.1
Auto17.6
Teleop39.5
End9.6
red by 4.1
62.51.2
61.762.9
Auto16.3
Teleop37.0
End9.2
Third
1220
#25
30.40.2
28.628.8
Auto9.0
Teleop15.5
End5.9
blue by 2.9
3184
#18
33.31.2
32.533.7
Auto5.1
Teleop25.1
End3.0