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Red159
582637.0
171446.1
179246.3
Blue121
220238.3
638136.7
702151.3
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions134137100110120130150160170159121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+44Teleop
+34Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave0
3Coral scored#3
17Coral points16
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +37
26Coral scored#15
92Coral points53
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#5
12Processor points6
12Net points20
24Algae points26
116Total teleop79
Reef
13L4#7
6L3#5
5L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
4Foul points0
159Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.31.4
46.948.3
Auto9.4
Teleop30.1
End6.8
blue by 5.0
51.30.8
49.648.8
Auto12.5
Teleop28.0
End10.8
Second
46.11.4
49.450.8
Auto7.8
Teleop33.6
End4.6
red by 7.7
2202
#26
38.30.8
43.742.9
Auto7.0
Teleop27.6
End3.6
Third
5826
#24
37.01.4
31.933.3
Auto10.2
Teleop24.5
End2.3
red by 0.4
6381
#31
36.70.8
34.433.6
Auto6.3
Teleop24.3
End6.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
26%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
61%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsEarned